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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
Biden is +6.8 in our national polling average following an NBC/WSJ poll that has him +8 among registered voters. Poll was taken before the RBG news. A +8 among registered
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So, recently Trump has been getting some fairly awful results in swing state polls while national polls have tightened a bit. It is fairly likely that is noise, i.e. that
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Biden's lead in our polling averages before/after these polls:MN +6.4 -> +7.4NH: +8.4 -> +6.9NV: +6.5 -> +5.9WI: +6.9 -> +6.5https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304754901902340102 So Biden's losing ground in 3 of 4, bu
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It's after Labor Day! It's no longer "too soon" to look at polls, even you're the type of person who's inclined to be conservative in when you start looking at
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Trump still has pretty decent winning chances (~30% in our model) but I don't really buy that his chances are *increasing* and I don't get why there seems to be
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On the Electoral College vs. popular vote spread, consider Biden's current polling margin in these 4 states, with a comparison to Obama in 2008:California: +31.5 (+24.0)Massachusetts: +34.1 (+25.8)New York: +26.8
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So, every time we run our presidential model, we show 100 maps on our interactive. The maps are randomly selected, more or less, out of the 40,000 simulations we conduct
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While one should always be alert to the possibility of systematic polling errors in either direction, this (alleging that polls are biased by 5-6 points against Trump because of shy
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It doesn't help that there hasn't been much polling lately, but there is a lot of "the pendulum is swinging away from Biden" speculation based on rather little actual evidence,
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The replies to this are interesting. I suspect most people vastly overestimate the risks of catching COVID given *any one* activity (e.g. going to the grocery store once) but then
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I've said this before, but part of what's confusing about this presidential race is that because of Trump's Electoral College edge, there isn't all that much of middle ground between
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Fundamentally, the "fundamentals" are improving for Trump. * The economy is getting better, although that could be threatened by Congressional inaction. * COVID cases are going down, although that could
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