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I disagree. Say there's a 1 in 100 chance someone acquires COVID because of a delayed vaccine (maybe conservative in the US where spread is still quite high) and a

It's also a high-stakes test for the FDA, and they failed it, because of course lots of people are going to take away the latter message.https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1381933962445094916 There's also data on

I've seen talk about how the media tends to emphasize negative news about COVID, which I don't doubt is true, but which surely stems in part from the fact that

This is a long, interesting thread on how much more transmissible B.1.1.7 (aka "the UK variant") really is.https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1380513950832414723 One thing I'd add is that contact-tracing data from the UK found

There are a lot of ways to lose a midterm—getting crushed among independents, for instance. But one way is with a low turnout from your base (e.g. Dems in 2010)

It didn't come close to succeeding. But I don't think people should inherently be criticized for having pointed out that a high-impact but low-probability event—Trump stealing the election—deserved attention....With that

There are a handful of polling firms (e.g. Trafalgar and Rasmussen) that rather explicitly operate on the premise other polls are skewed against Trump. Including them in your polling averages

Quick thread. Warning: not super exciting.1. In the course of our reporting on Trafalgar Group—part of the due diligence we often do while entering polls—we've learned that some of their

Gonna keep repeating this point, because it has a variety of implications for vote counting, what happens if some ballots come in after the deadline, etc.: There is lots of

The race is not tightening if you use any sort of robust methodology or look at the better polling. The tightening is almost entirely confined to a group of 3

I would note that the gap is a little bit narrower in our *forecast*: Biden +5.1 in Pennsylvania vs. +7.8 in the national popular vote. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/132

I think there are basically 3 groups of polls that herd.1) Some (certainly not most or all) online or IVR polls with crappy raw data seem to look to live-caller