It's after Labor Day! It's no longer "too soon" to look at polls, even you're the type of person who's inclined to be conservative in when you start looking at polls. Joe Biden leads by 7.5 points in our national polling average:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Meanwhile, our *forecast* gives Trump a 28% chance of winning, and Biden a 72% chance. So the outcome is a long way from certain, despite Biden's current polling lead. Where do Trump's chances come from?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

1. It's a closer race in the Electoral College, with Biden ahead by perhaps 4-5 points in the tipping-point states.

2. Our model expects the race to tighten by a point or so because of improvement in the economy.

(cont.)

3. Labor Day is an inflection point where polls *begin* to get more reliable. But we're still at just the beginning of the end, if you will. There are still the debates and lots of campaigning and news left to go.

4. Polls are off by an average of ~3 points on Election Day.