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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
One thing I think is becoming clear: many people agreed about shutting down as an initial step, but they may also have had very different ideas about what happened after
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One thing about Sweden is they're not doing that much testing. It's not **awful**, but it's pretty bad; slightly lower testing rates per capita than the US. It seems hard
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How many COVID-19 cases result in hospitalizations? In states that have tracked cumulative hospitalizations, there's a wide range, but an average of 17% of *known cases* have resulted in hospitalizations
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Thread. It looks like the IHME model is fond of drawing curves that are quite symmetric, i.e. they expect deaths to fall about as fast as they expect them to
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OK, which of these is closest to the mark for you? (Poll in next tweet.) Poll:
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How to put this carefully:There are *many* uncertainties surrounding coronavirus *including* about weather.It seems like the uncertainties are greater if you do *not* assume that weather plays some role in
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Here's what the electoral map would look like if votes were determined solely by population density, measured by the average number of people that live within a 5 mile radius
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First net decline in total hospitalizations for New York State today. It's partly people being discharged but gross new hospitalizations have also declined substantially from their peak. However, deaths are
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There's a fair amount of misremembered/revisionist narratives about when places closed down and how much that correlates with the scale of their outbreaks. California was quite on the ball. But
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A couple of things to be mindful of:1) Federal government response is only one factor in how well a country responds, especially in a federalist system like the US;2) There
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What I don't totally understand about Sweden is whether this is the outcome they were expecting or not. If you do deliberately half-assed social distancing (not trying to get R
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I don't know what's gonna happen. But I think there is maybe just the teensiest tiniest bit too much pessimism about how/when the US will manage to open society/the economy
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