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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
I don't know exactly what they're doing, but it's not a good sign that I always know what a Trafalgar Group poll is going to say without having to open
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Colorado's another example of why there won't necessarily be a "blue shift" in late-counted ballots (and could even be a red shift). Dems lead by 13 points in mail ballots
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What are Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine doing right on COVID? With almost every other state having been hit hard at some point or another, they've become real outliers relative
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If there hadn't been a (not actually all that large!) polling error in 2016, you can imagine the conventional wisdom being *incredibly* certain right now that Trump was going to
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It's definitely a source of uncertainty and different ways that pollsters are handling early and mail voting vis-a-vis likely voter models probably explains some of the differences we're seeing between
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Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million
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One other question is what is Biden wins some of these states but not others.Biden is ~99% to win if he wins *any two* of FL, NC and AZ but
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Obviously a fairly awful result for Trump in Michigan, but these other ones he can live with given that Fox News state polls have actually had pretty good numbers for
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You could probably convince me that the race has tightened by half a point. On the other hand, there had been a bit of a state poll vs. national poll
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So far, returned mail ballots are D +31 (not a surprise given what polls show) whereas the set of mail ballots that have been requested but not yet returned are
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The polls have been in something of a holding pattern for the past few days, with two distinguishing features.First, Biden's lead in national polls is very steady. It was 10.4
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The end of the campaign is anxiety-inducing. Here are 8 tips for how I'd recommend navigating the polls and under news developments.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-stay-sane-in-the-final-15-days-of-the-campaign/ To be fai
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