Trump still has pretty decent winning chances (~30% in our model) but I don't really buy that his chances are *increasing* and I don't get why there seems to be some sentiment to that effect. In some ways, rather, this was the most reassuring week of the campaign for Biden.

Why? If you're behind, you only have so many chances to turn the campaign around, and Trump whiffed on a couple of chances this week.

He did not get much help from his convention.

Nor does his "LAW AND ORDER" focus seem to working, at least if you trust the polls.

To put it another way, with the late conventions this year, we're rapidly transitioning from "it's still pretty early" to "we're in the stretch run". And out of that Trump went from...trailing by 8-9 points to 7-8 instead? (And that small bounce might fade anyway.) Not great.

Underlying conditions may be getting a bit better for Trump. We did get a great jobs report this AM. COVID cases have been falling. (Though more of a plateau lately, which is a bit concerning.) Some optimism about vaccines. (Along with concern they'll be rushed out.)

But it's also clear that Trump isn't very focused on any of that. Just look at his Twitter feed this week. It's about obscure cable news stories instead. About Nancy Pelosi going to the beauty parlor. About John McCain. About the Drudge Report. About "mini-strokes".

The chaotic news cycles induced by Trump can sometimes be make it hard for his opponent to drive a message. If he was ahead, they could help him to run out the clock. But now *he's* behind and *he's* the one who needs something to change and *he* has to drive a message.