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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
So, Democrats are worried that a partial, V- or check-shaped recovery (e.g. unemployment goes from 3.5% pre-covid to 15% mid-covid to 9% by November) will help Trump. I tend to
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I'm uncertain about a lot of things re: what will happen in the US on COVID. But some of the models show the chance of a long plateau... i.e. once
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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking. Be careful with this one.Newly-reported deathsToday: 654Yesterday: 1,091One week ago (5/17): 839Newly-reported casesT: 21KY: 21K5/17: 21KNewly-reported testsT: 379KY: 365K5/17: 403KPositive test rate:T
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Here are all states where >0.5% of the population is currently infected with COVID-19, via https://covid19-projections.com/ RI 1.9%NJ 1.6DC 1.5IL 1.5CT 1.4MA 1.4DE 1.2MS 1.2IN 1.1PA 1.1IA 1.0MD 1.0OH 0.8AZ 0.7CO
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GA, FL & TX have probably been the most focused-upon states for opening early, but if you look at mobility data, they're on the low end compared to neighbors.https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobilityLA -29%*FL
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These @youyanggu projections are interesting. If his model had to make a modal projection, it would be that the US will plateau somewhere near the recent total of ~1,300 deaths
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So, here's a podcast with @brianstelter where I talk about media coverage of coronavirus data. I think media coverage of coronavirus overall has been good in many respects, but there
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You know why there's maybe been a surge of cases in Orange County, California, as this story focuses on?Because they're doing a ton more testing than before.https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-13/two-big-reasons-california-has-st
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Let's try a test then: predict what the top 10 surge areas will be 2 weeks from now. (Must be specific cities/metro areas and you must define which metric you're
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2 weeks ago on 4/26, NYC had reported 5,213 *probable* COVID-19 deaths and 11,460 *confirmed* deaths.As of today they have 5,178 probable deaths and 14,753 confirmed deaths.So confirmed deaths are
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Herbert Hoover lost by "only" 17 points in a somewhat less partisan epoch than we have today (although the 1930s were decently partisan).https://twitter.com/peterdaou/status/1259109700282482688 Also, worth remembering the uncertainty runs i
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A lot of evidence suggests that formal re-opening policies are only loosely correlated with people's behavior. Tennessee (+8%) and Kentucky (+8%) score exactly the same on Apple's mobility tracker even
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