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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
Obama got 66% approval / 16% disapproval in spring 2009 for his response to H1N1. Came early in his term when he was quite popular overall but still, high numbers.
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A big challenge in determining the effectiveness of policy interventions (i.e. social distancing) is that there are really several buckets that determine how bad the outbreak is in any given
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One of the seeming paradoxes that comes through in this Bill Gates interview is that the more optimistic one tends to be about vaccines and treatments the more one tends
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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:Newly reported deaths:Today: 1,184Yesterday: 2,194One week ago (4/19): 1,654Newly reported cases:T: 27KY: 41K4/19: 27KNewly reported tests:T: 256KY: 298K4/19: 167KShare of tests positive:T: 11%Y: 14%4/19: 16% An
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OK, quick thread on the 3 major types of statistical issues in seroprevalence studies—that is, studies that try to figure out how many people had COVID-19, like the one released
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US numbers via @COVID19Tracking. Weird but better day.Newly-reported deathsToday: 2,108Yesterday: 2,674One week ago (4/15): 2,492Newly-reported casesT: 27KY: 27K4/15: 30KNewly-reported testsT: 311KY: 152K4/15: 161KShare of positive testsT: 9%Y: 18%4/
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There are a lot of well-intended and well-written critiques of the Santa Clara Co. serology study but at some point it's not that complicated. A test that *could* have a
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It really is under-appreciated how different the COVID-19 trajectories look in different states. Here's a quick THREAD with another simple way to summarize the data. Take a 7-day average of
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I've been tracking Google searches for various kinds of party-related terms as a sign of lockdown fatigue...https://twitter.com/dansinker/status/1252755686242635776 A slow but steady increase in "birthday party" searches. No change yet
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Also relevant here is Italy, where there’s been a much steeper decline in positive test rates in Lombardy, the worst-affected region, than in the rest of the country. Both peaked
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It seems like in wealthy Western countries with bad outbreaks of COVID-19, total excess mortality is about 1.5x higher than confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Quick thread on how I think about
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If red states open in 2 weeks and blue states stay closed, then in 4-5 weeks you could have a bunch of open red states where case counts are increasing
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