On the Electoral College vs. popular vote spread, consider Biden& #39;s current polling margin in these 4 states, with a comparison to Obama in 2008:

California: +31.5 (+24.0)
Massachusetts: +34.1 (+25.8)
New York: +26.8 (+26.7)
Washington: +26.2 (+17.1)
New Jersey +19.5 (+15.5)

The comparison to Obama in 2008 is instructive because Biden is polling at almost exactly Obama& #39;s popular vote margin from & #39;08 now (7.5 vs. 7.3 for Biden). But he& #39;s added a LOT of votes in these 5 high-population states, plus possibly MD and IL, which have little polling.

Those 5 states account for ~25% of national turnout, so if you improve by an average of say 6 points in them versus Obama in 2008, then you& #39;ll gain an extra 1.5 points in the popular vote without helping your Electoral College chances at all.

Yeah, this is the counter in the long run. But it doesn& #39;t really help Biden in the short run because Texas and Georgia aren& #39;t quite close enough to the tipping-point yet. (Arizona *is* near the tipping-point, but it& #39;s only 10 electoral votes.) https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1301208843905630209?s=20">https://twitter.com/conorsen/...

Florida also shares a lot in common with the states that have become bluer (coastal! diverse! urbanized!) but it hasn& #39;t, really. The world where Florida is slightly to the left of the tipping point instead of slightly to the right looks a lot different, electorally.