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On the Electoral College vs. popular vote spread, consider Biden's current polling margin in these 4 states, with a comparison to Obama in 2008:
California: +31.5 (+24.0)
Massachusetts: +34.1 (+25.8)
New York: +26.8 (+26.7)
Washington: +26.2 (+17.1)
New Jersey +19.5 (+15.5)
California: +31.5 (+24.0)
Massachusetts: +34.1 (+25.8)
New York: +26.8 (+26.7)
Washington: +26.2 (+17.1)
New Jersey +19.5 (+15.5)
The comparison to Obama in 2008 is instructive because Biden is polling at almost exactly Obama's popular vote margin from '08 now (7.5 vs. 7.3 for Biden). But he's added a LOT of votes in these 5 high-population states, plus possibly MD and IL, which have little polling.
Those 5 states account for ~25% of national turnout, so if you improve by an average of say 6 points in them versus Obama in 2008, then you'll gain an extra 1.5 points in the popular vote without helping your Electoral College chances at all.
Yeah, this is the counter in the long run. But it doesn't really help Biden in the short run because Texas and Georgia aren't quite close enough to the tipping-point yet. (Arizona *is* near the tipping-point, but it's only 10 electoral votes.) https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1301208843905630209?s=20
Florida also shares a lot in common with the states that have become bluer (coastal! diverse! urbanized!) but it hasn't, really. The world where Florida is slightly to the left of the tipping point instead of slightly to the right looks a lot different, electorally.
