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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
Even a 10-point lead isn't safe for Biden because 1) it's closer in the swing states 2) there's still *some* time for the race to tighten 3) polls can be
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One thing about 2016 is it wasn't just that our model gave Trump a better chance than other models/conventional wisdom, but also that we really tried to lean into that
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How polls handle people who have already voted is interesting. In theory, one could argue along these lines: people who say they've already voted should get weighted at 100%, while
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If I had to guess, I'd take the under on Biden's current 9.5 (!) point lead. But I don't know. The polls show Biden doing super duper well among independents
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I'm not sure people realize how much poll results will vary through chance alone. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-has-made-some-modest-gains-after-the-debate/ Now, it's pretty clear that Biden has gained ground, from +7 b
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I don't think it would be crazy—from a purely strategic standpoint, notwithstanding the health risk—for Harris to put her foot down and say leaders need to take COVID seriously and
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Now 7 people seated in close proximity at the Amy Coney Barrett kickoff event at the Rose Garden have tested positive. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/02/trump-timeline-activities-425041 https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/13122
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No one is debating that. In fact, I have said explicitly that it's important to pay attention to.But there are some issues that can arise from treating it as a
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One thing Democrats could do—with basically no strategic downside—is to hammer home the message that voters should ask for and return their mail ballots as early as possible, which makes
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The simple answer here has always been that the GOP would confirm someone, because it's worth an awful lot to them, and also that they'll pay a price for doing
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Contingent on Democrats winning a fairly resounding victory on Nov. 3, obviously a huge contingency, probably right.https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1308178181229346816 You have a GOP that appoints a new justice either immediately before
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We ran the numbers, and the Senate is currently around *6 to 7 points* (!) more Republican than the country as a whole, based on the position of the median
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