It doesn't help that there hasn't been much polling lately, but there is a lot of "the pendulum is swinging away from Biden" speculation based on rather little actual evidence, most if it coming from the sorts of people from whom such speculation often proves to be wrong. https://twitter.com/mattklewis/status/1300037674422743040

In post-convention polling, YouGov and Morning Consult show slight gains for Trump. Ipsos/ABC did not release head-to-head numbers, but showed no change in views of Biden or Trump. The USC tracking poll so far shows Biden's lead GROWING post-RNC.

We'd love to have more polling. But if you had to guess from the evidence we have so far, plus the mediocre ratings for the convention, you'd think we're looking at a modest bounce for Trump that may be detectable but is on the smaller side of convention bounces historically.

If we go from Biden +9 pre-RNC to say Biden +7 post-RNC once we get more polling, I'm not sure that speaks favorably to Trump's re-election odds or to his message working. Bounces are typically a bit larger, in fact, and the post-RNC period should be a high-water mark for Trump.

If we get down to Biden +4/5 or something, that's different, and about the point at which the speculation starts to be justified. But we haven't seen numbers like that yet, and I'm not sure it's particularly likely that we will in the short term.

Given the lack of polling evidence so far, are there good priors to assume Kenosha will help Trump?

I don't know about that either. Consider:

1. The unrest is happening while he is president;
2. Trump's standing in the polls WORSENED in June amid outbreaks of violence;

3. Polls show voters give Trump poor marks on protest handling;
4. Polls show voters give Trump poor marks on race relations;
5. Trump is often careless in his messaging and in crisis management.

So to me, it seems hard to know how this will play out.