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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
Biden's Electoral College win probability down a bit, to 70%, after some mediocre polls for him this morning. He had been hovering around 73% in recent days. So not a
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All conventions are a mix of reaching out to wavering voters and shoring up your base. The D convention, especially Biden's speech, was perhaps 65/35 in the reaching-out direction. Night
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I don't think it should be underestimated how much the CARES Act and the fairly generous stimulus it provided has blunted the economic impact of COVID-19 for the average American.
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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:Newly reported deathsToday: 365Yesterday: 523One week ago (7/13): 327Newly reported casesT: 58KY: 64K7/13: 58KNewly reported testsT: 735KY: 769K7/13: 722KPositive test rateT: 7.9%Y: 8.3%7/13: 8.1% Monda
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The progress on the science front to fighting COVID continues to be at like the 95th percentile of reasonable expectations, even as the political/societal response has, uh, not been.https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1285207186591887360 h
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THREAD: In forecasting Trump's fate, one needs to be careful as there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to what the trajectory of the pandemic will look like by
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Something that I think gets lost is: the plan was not supposed to be to have lockdowns—or related things like school closures—until a vaccine. Lockdowns suck. It was to use
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US numbers via @COVID19Tracking: CAUTION—HOLIDAY WEEKEND Newly reported deathsToday: 919Yesterday: 242One week ago (6/30): 596Newly reported casesT: 52KY: 47K6/30: 44KNewly reported testsT: 653KY: 518K6/30: 637KPositive test rateT: 7.9%Y:
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Saw someone suggest "cooling degree days" (basically the number of days that it's hot enough out that you'd want the AC on) as a proxy for states where it's currently
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4 weeks ago there was tons of media coverage of "leaked White House projections" that supposedly showed deaths rising to 3K/day and cases to 200K/day by today. As I said,
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US numbers via @COVID19Tracking. A weird one.Newly reported deathsToday: 1,259Yesterday: 629One week ago (5/27): 1,402Newly reported casesT: 19KY: 16K5/27: 21KNewly reported testsT: 286K*Y: 302K5/27: 405KPositive test rateT: 7%*Y: 5%5/27: 5
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Why are *reported* deaths in this slide so different than projected deaths? Was this a model originally developed in March or something? It is very strange. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-updates.html Projecting ~200K new
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