I& #39;ve said this before, but part of what& #39;s confusing about this presidential race is that because of Trump& #39;s Electoral College edge, there isn& #39;t all that much of middle ground between "landslide" and "highly competitive".

If Biden wins by 9 points, his current margin in polls, it& #39;s the largest popular vote victory since Reagan over Carter in & #39;80. And his map would be impressive. Something like the Obama & #39;08 map plus Arizona and quite possibly Georgia and Texas (though without Indiana).

At Biden +2 or +3 points, though? Then the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up. And at +5 or +6, he can& #39;t breathe easily; then he& #39;s just a normal, 2016-sized polling error away from losing a squeaker in the Electoral College.

Correction. A 9-point win would be biggest win since & #39;84, not & #39;80.

Would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since & #39;80, though. And if Biden could win by 10 instead of 9, would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since Hoover in & #39;32. https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1299448999775174656?s=20">https://twitter.com/kkondik/s...