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I've said this before, but part of what's confusing about this presidential race is that because of Trump's Electoral College edge, there isn't all that much of middle ground between "landslide" and "highly competitive".
If Biden wins by 9 points, his current margin in polls, it's the largest popular vote victory since Reagan over Carter in '80. And his map would be impressive. Something like the Obama '08 map plus Arizona and quite possibly Georgia and Texas (though without Indiana).
At Biden +2 or +3 points, though? Then the Electoral College is roughly a toss-up. And at +5 or +6, he can't breathe easily; then he's just a normal, 2016-sized polling error away from losing a squeaker in the Electoral College.
Correction. A 9-point win would be biggest win since '84, not '80.
Would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since '80, though. And if Biden could win by 10 instead of 9, would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since Hoover in '32. https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1299448999775174656?s=20
Would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since '80, though. And if Biden could win by 10 instead of 9, would be the largest defeat of an incumbent since Hoover in '32. https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1299448999775174656?s=20
