Toggle navigation
TWText.com
TWText.com
faq
Contact US
Follow US
Nate Silver
NateSilver538
I'm seeing people mean (at least) two different things when they use the phrase "flatten the curve" and they have different (somewhat opposite) implications for when the peak will be
Read more
Mentioned this yesterday, but the conversation around the effect that temperature has on COVID-19 is strange. There's a lot of stuff where the headlines say be "nope, no effect" but
Read more
There's this notion the US is lagging behind Europe in death rates and is "catching up", but I'm not sure that's true. Yesterday was a really bad day for the
Read more
The percentage of tests that are coming up positive in NY state remains very high but now falling a bit each day:4/7 (most recent): 41.7%4/6: 42.5%4/5: 46.7%4/4: 44.6%4/3: 46.9%4/2: 48.6%4/1:
Read more
After surprisingly low death tolls the past two days—which I was worried were partly caused by day-of-week effects (reporting can be slower coming out of weekends)— today was a bad
Read more
One thing re: sports getting re-started.People seem to be interpreting proposals by the various leagues in light of the current situation, i.e. where there are rather strict lockdowns almost everywhere.
Read more
New York reports fewer new cases than yesterday:Today: 8147Mon: 8658Sun: 8327Sat: 10841Fri: 10482Thu: 8669Wed: 7917Tuesday 3/31: 9299Not sure about testing volume—Cuomo doesn't usually announce those numbers—though it's been fairly constant
Read more
Except that the trajectory is not relentless and the curve has bent a lot. And comparing the US to much smaller countries isn't that informative, especially if you're not adjusting
Read more
Newly-reported US COVID-19 deaths:Mon 4/6—1182Sun 4/5—1184Sat 4/4—1352Fri 4/3—1178Thu 4/2—1084Wed 4/1—954Tue 3/31—807Mon 3/30—511Sun 3/29—463Sat 3/28—435Fri 3/27—367Thu 3/26—263Wed 3/25—225Tue 3/24—204Mon 3/23—73Sun 3/22—126Sat 3/21—53Fri 3/20—59Thu
Read more
Ehh, I think there was an organized effort to stop Bernie, more or less, and those endorsements were a big part of it. And it worked. Bernie's campaign didn't think
Read more
This is a good thread. It's not *completely* binary whether we wind up with a "best-case scenario" (deaths in the high 5 figures/low 6 figures) or a worst-case scenario (an
Read more
I'm not sure that's clear. On the one hand, hospitals may be more overwhelmed at the peak, as you say. On the other hand, as testing volume improves—and testing is
Read more
‹
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
›