I& #39;m uncertain about a lot of things re: what will happen in the US on COVID. But some of the models show the chance of a long plateau... i.e. once we get down to ~1,000 deaths/day, we might stay there for a while. That seems plausible to me. https://covid19-projections.com/ ">https://covid19-projections.com/">...

How could you get there? If states are willing to maintain enough social distancing to prevent R from being >1, but not more. So they& #39;ll try to prevent *increases*, but they& #39;ll tolerate plateaus. Some states (e.g. NY) explicitly have a policy of trying to keep R <=1, in fact.

Of course, because there are lags between policy and behavioral changes and the data, there& #39;s the risk of miscalculation. You think you& #39;re managing R to 1 but ... oops, turns out it& #39;s 1.5! The risk I worry most about comes in the fall if there are strong weather-related effects.