A lot of evidence suggests that formal re-opening policies are only loosely correlated with people's behavior.

Tennessee (+8%) and Kentucky (+8%) score exactly the same on Apple's mobility tracker even though Tennessee is "open" and Kentucky is "closed". https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility

Looked at in a more systematic way, re-opening per se *probably* does have some effect, but it's marginal; the key determinants are weather, political attitudes, and how bad a state's outbreak was (people are more careful in states where more people died). https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1256975759861780480?s=20