It& #39;s definitely a source of uncertainty and different ways that pollsters are handling early and mail voting vis-a-vis likely voter models probably explains some of the differences we& #39;re seeing between polls right now. https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/1319399895007170561">https://twitter.com/kurteiche...

I think there& #39;s *probably* more upside risk than downside risk for Democrats here (i.e. that turnout will be bluer than likely voter models project) but I can also imagine scenarios where it leads pollsters to underestimate the R vote instead.

For instance, if you had a fixed estimate of turnout (as X% of registered voters) and you put people who had already voted first in the queue, then mostly GOP election day voters might get crowded out. That& #39;s a weird way to do a likely voter model but some pollsters might do it.

A bit less contrived: some "unlikely voters" actually do turn out to vote. So if you screen out a bunch of Republican unlikely voters, but you don& #39;t screen out as many of the Dem unlikely voters because they& #39;ve already voted, you could underestimate the GOP vote share.

OTOH, some people who are deemed to be likely voters *don& #39;t* vote. So the upside case for Dems is if 100% (or more like 98% since there& #39;s some ballot spoilage) of the already-voted "likely voters" vote whereas say only 85-90% of election-day likely voters actually follow thru.