Read on Twitter
Obviously a fairly awful result for Trump in Michigan, but these other ones he can live with given that Fox News state polls have actually had pretty good numbers for Biden this year. https://twitter.com/WardDPatrick/status/1319035965831323650
Overall, though, this was a day that brought some clarity. One of Trump's worst days of state polling in a while, but one of his better days for national polls, closing what had been a gap between them. Both now seem to point to perhaps a 9 or 9.5 point Biden lead nationally.
We also learned that high-quality polls in PA are continuing to cluster around a 6 or perhaps 6.5 point Biden lead, and high quality polls in Florida are +3 or +4 Biden, on average. That's what our model thought all along rather than being thrown off the scent by spammy polls.
The data in the Midwest has been a bit more confusing. You can find a few comparatively bright spots for Trump in WI and OH polls recently, but not many in MI or IA. It's probably mostly noise.
