You could probably convince me that the race has tightened by half a point. On the other hand, there had been a bit of a state poll vs. national poll gap, and Biden got some pretty good state polls this morning. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/ ">https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/&qu...

As @Nate_Cohn wrote yesterday, there are also some reasons to think the race might tighten a bit. Indeed, that& #39;s what our model predicts (it has Biden winning the popular vote by ~8, not ~10). But Trump needs it to tighten by *more than a bit*. #trumps-best-day-of-polling-since-the-debate">https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden #trumps-best-day-of-polling-since-the-debate">https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020...

There& #39;s a ton of national polling so no one poll is going to influence our average much. And there& #39;s nothing intrinsically wrong with the IBD poll. But that won& #39;t stop some people from looking only at that poll and not the many other polls in the average. https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1318910415989071873?s=20">https://twitter.com/joshtpm/s...

Looking at the polling average vs. cherry-picking polls is the lowest bar to clear. If someone isn& #39;t able to do that, then maybe they have valuable insights about other topics but they don& #39;t know what they& #39;re doing on polling stuff.