Based on an update we'll be releasing later today, we're now projecting total turnout in the presidential race to be 154 million, with an 80th percentile range between 144 million and 165 million. In 2016, turnout was 137 million, by comparison.

The primary ingredient in our turnout estimate is polls that ask people whether they're more or less enthusiastic about voting than usual, and those polls are showing record levels of enthusiasm.

We've also increased our estimate based on academic research showing expanded voting options (e.g. no-excuse absentee voting) tends to increase turnout, as well as new @ElectProject estimates of the voting-eligible population, which is higher than what we'd used previously.

FWIW, the turnout estimates don't affect the probabilities in our model—they're just sort of a side project—but we thought it was worth putting a little extra work into them as we've seen people citing the numbers here and there.

FYI, if you scroll down to the bottom of our forecast, you can find a link to download TONS of additional data that we don't show on the interactive. That includes these turnout estimates, joint probabilities of winning POTUS + Congress... and much more. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/