There are a lot of ways to lose a midterm—getting crushed among independents, for instance.

But one way is with a low turnout from your base (e.g. Dems in 2010) and I tend to think that won't be a problem for Dems in 2022 because their voters will see the stakes as existential.

By "existential" mean that many Democrats will think that "democracy itself is on the line" between the Big Lie (and the fact that Congressional majorities could make it easier for the GOP to overturn the 2024 election) and the increased attention to voting rights.

Why the minority party tends to gain at the midterms is a complicated question, but much of it is simply that voters want to check the party in power. However, if the minority party could use a good midterm to permanently entrench itself, the calculation is a lot different.

Also, the fact that Republicans *aren't* rebranding themselves when losing parties almost always do is significant. It's possible that the midterm gains that the minority party typically makes are premised upon doing so. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-republican-party-isnt-rebranding-after-2020/