The race is not tightening if you use any sort of robust methodology or look at the better polling. The tightening is almost entirely confined to a group of 3 or 4 pollsters that release a lot of polls and so can dominate polling averages that don& #39;t adjust for house effects, etc.

I don& #39;t think it& #39;s the best use of my time to bat down every dumb theory about why Trump can win ... in part because Trump can win (!!) even though it probably won& #39;t be for the particular reasons the theory espouses.

But it& #39;s kind of silly season out there right now.