I disagree. Say there& #39;s a 1 in 100 chance someone acquires COVID because of a delayed vaccine (maybe conservative in the US where spread is still quite high) and a 1 in 150 chance they die from it. That& #39;s a 1 in 15,000 chance vs. 1 blood clot death in 7,000,000 doses so far. https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1381962983929049093">https://twitter.com/kakape/st...

Now of course there& #39;s a lot of stuff we haven& #39;t considered. But it cuts in both directions. The incidence of blood clot deaths may be higher that indicated so far given we& #39;re not systematically monitoring for them. OTOH, we also have to consider the base rates in the population.

We also have to consider that the person who gets COVID because of a delayed vaccine will pass her case along to an average of 1 other person given where Rt is in the US right now. So the death rate is actually twice as high as I indicated above.

So I don& #39;t think it& #39;s a particularly close decision. Even if blood clot deaths were 10-fold higher than observed so far, which is certainly possible, it wouldn& #39;t be a close decision. And that& #39;s before considering the knock-off effects on contributing to vaccine hesitancy.