#Polls

Nate Silver

NateSilver538

It's after Labor Day! It's no longer "too soon" to look at polls, even you're the type of person who's inclined to be conservative in when you start looking at

Sam Parker 🇺🇲

SamParkerSenate

***Short Thread of Polls***Question 1:For My Followers, are you Male or Female? ***Short Thread of Polls***Question 2:For my followers, are you an American Citizen (Yes or No) and do you

Eric Dolansky

uncertainprof

Some thoughts on the whole "ignore the polls" thing. I get that people shouldn't get complacent (please don't!) but I think there are layers here that are not part of

Jon Sabal

MrBurnNotice

Polling Data Tread: Let's talk about it. Biden leads in the national polls by about 8pts. That 8 point lead has been consistent for the past couple months. Now, you

Nate Cohn

Nate_Cohn

With the important exception of the Monmouth national poll, the last five days of polls have been really brutal for Trump. The ABC/NYT polls in PA are potentially devastating. These

Alana Rocha

viaAlana

1/ There are a lot of polls saying the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in Texas is close this year. Should you take them seriously?We spoke with @rossramsey

Carl Allen

RealCarlAllen

1/x A fun challenge/exercise for college professors and HS teachers out there. Whether you're in math, stats, science, or govt. this is germane to your field!Take a poll of your

Dave Wasserman

Redistrict

Yeah, this is a poor take. Biden is not about to run 10 points behind Clinton in Philly proper. Almost all PA district-level polls (w/ much larger samples) show Trump

Political Polls

PpollingNumbers

#NEW General Election, Garin-Hart-Yang Poll:National:Biden 50% (+7)Trump 43%Michigan: Biden 50% (+9)Trump 41%Wisconsin: Biden 48% (+1)Trump 47%(Poll Conducted April 6-8) https://politicalpolls.jhkforecasts.com/general_election#polls

Matt Goodwin

GoodwinMJ

New.Britain's Conservative Party hits a new record high in the polls Conservatives 55%Labour 29%26 point leadOpinium One year ago today the Conservative Party was on 28% in the polls and

Nate Cohn

Nate_Cohn

After four years, the 2020 polls pick up almost exactly where they left off in 2016.Here's how the race has changed, or hasn'thttps://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/upshot/polls-biden-trump-election.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Ho

Nate Silver

NateSilver538

So, recently Trump has been getting some fairly awful results in swing state polls while national polls have tightened a bit. It is fairly likely that is noise, i.e. that

Nate Cohn

Nate_Cohn

There are some valid differences:--538 shifted from 'polls only' to 'polls plus' as default. polls plus in '16 was clinton 73.5% on 8/26--polling and priors now support a Trump E.C.

Aaron Astor

AstorAaron

Five days before Election Day in 2016, HRC's national lead dropped to 3.0 in 538. (It was 1.3 in RCP). Today it's 8.9 in 538 (and 7.7 in RCP). The

Andrew Old

oldandrewuk

The "Ireland is just like the UK in several largely irrelevant ways, but has more coronavirus deaths" thread that's being shared reminds me of the "all the polls are wrong

Grant Simpson

Edin_Engineer

One thing we learned this week is that polls are a lot of cobblers. Nowhere is that truer than Scotland, where polls showing support for independence are designed with that