Polling Data Tread: Let's talk about it. Biden leads in the national polls by about 8pts. That 8 point lead has been consistent for the past couple months. Now, you might ask how is that different than Hillary in 2016? 1/
You might think you're right. Hillary did lead by as much as double digits at one point in the campaign during 2016. But remember, polls are not predictions. They are a snapshot in time. That lead Hillary enjoyed was about to be cut severely two weeks before the election.
When the FBI reopened the case against Hillary Clinton, Hillary's lead went from about 6 points to 2 by election day. If you look at the end results, Hillary did win the popular vote by about 2-3 points. So what happen? Were the polls wrong?
No. Again polls are a snapshot. There is a margin of error for all polls. It's between 1-3%. Looking back at all of the battleground seats in 2016, they all fell in the margin of error. All of those battleground seats just happened to go to Trump. So why was it shock Trump won?
The short answer, the Media. They're were analysts and media individuals told the public that Trump had no shot. Was Trump an underdog going into election? 100%. But did he have no chance to win? If you looked at the polling data, they gave him 33% percent chance to win.
So how is this different? Well one thing, polling data gives leads to Biden that are greater than the margin of error. MI-8%, WI-8%, PA-5%, MN-8%. Also, Biden is fairing well in other Battleground states: AZ, FL, GA, and NC. All of those states went for Trump in 2016. AND Texas.
Those from the Trump campaign like to say how wrong the polls were in 2016. But, while there were polls that ended being wrong and going Republicans. There were polling numbers that ended being more favorable towards Democrats. Texas being one of them.
Texas was favored going Trump by 12pts. It ended up being 9pts. FYI, Ted Cruz won back his senate seat by less than 3% in 2018. Right now, Trump is up by about 2% in Texas. If the Democrats gets the same bump as they did in 2016, Biden would win Texas. That's the election.
Polls. ARE. NOT. PREDICTIONS. They are snapshots. Both sides will say don't believe the polls. This is done to get enthusiasm from voters for their candidate. This doesn't mean we shouldn't pay attention to polls. They are indicators and right now they are pointed to a Biden win.
While the polls say Biden is leading, that shouldn't discourage you to vote. Please vote. Polling data has been used for multiple decades and don't allow a few state polls from last election that were marginal wrong to discredit the whole polling process. End of thread/
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