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Nate Cohn
Nate_Cohn
Important @rickhasen piece on the growing danger of election subversion, which has been painfully overlooked in recent monthshttps://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/1385569083920314370?s=20 He offers a few possible actions Congress might consi
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Biden now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama's 3.86 pt win in 2012. He'll exceed it soon.They won by similar amounts in very different
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There was a point on Tuesday night--not sure the time, you can probably find the tweet--when the eastern Ohio counties came in and I think I would have thought very
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There was some conflicting info among white northerners at that point: MN/ME/NH were fine for Biden, WI was close, and rural OH/IA were worse than 2016. IDK how I would
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AM update: What's still left to count, and why hasn't a winner been called?https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/07/upshot/election-count-remaining-biden.html In Pennsylvania, I can think of two possibilities. One is that the desks are wa
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The racial gap in American electoral politics is shrinking, according to pre-election polls. The gap between white and nonwhite voters has dropped by 17 points, as Biden and Trump make
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Donald Trump still leads in Texas, according to the final Times/Siena poll of the state, as strength among nonwhite voters does just enough to overcome all out rebellion in the
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A familiar move for Bloomberg, who made big last minute plays in red CDs in 2018https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/us/politics/bloomberg-ads-texas-ohio.html With more than 80% of 2016 voters already in, you might think it's too
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We've conducted four polls of Wisconsin over the last year, and we can go back and join them up to some of the absentee voting data there. It's a little
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One important election night twist: early mail ballots are really good for Biden in Arizona so far, reversing the traditional pattern (you may recall McSally led and then Sinema over
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And if we break those 'vote neither down':Newly reg: Biden 47, Trump 36Previously reg: Trump 41, Biden 40 And one last cut (again, pooling all states / data)All RVs: Biden
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We're really locked into like 90% of our design, but at this stage there are two things that I really agonize over: --weighting on self-reported race--everything having to do with
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