Dave Wasserman, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman

Redistrict

MICHIGAN: is shrinking from 14 to 13 seats, and w/ a new citizens' commission, few incumbents are safe. Somewhat ironically, *Dems* might have more to lose switching from the current

BREAKING: new Census apportionment counts...TX +2FL +1CO, MT, NC, OR +1CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA, WV -1 This is a slightly smaller seat shift than expected. The big winners:

MARYLAND: there are creative maps, and then there's this work of art, which Dems passed in 2011 to seize a 7D-1R majority. But this time, they're poised go even further,

BREAKING: sources on both Dem & GOP sides confirm that the final counts submitted by all 8 counties in #NY22 to NY Supreme Court Justice Scott DelConte will show Rep.

Here's a list of Philly precincts that don't appear to be anywhere near the 62% turnout in the rest of the city.Division/ballots counted as share of RVs04-14: 18%07-17: 15%25-15: 24%37-17:

Morning update: Texas just surpassed 95% of its 2016 total votes cast w/ two days of early voting & Election Day left to go. We're just headed for a massive,

In Sumter Co., FL, as of this morning 72,695 out of 105,612 registered voters (69%) have already voted - which I believe is the highest turnout rate outside of auto-VBM

This is precisely the time news outlets should begin preparing viewers for a possible "red mirage" of results in the north (MI/PA/WI) and a "blue mirage" in the southeast (FL/GA/TX)

A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear:1) Biden's lead (52%-43%) larger & more stable than Clinton's in '162) Far fewer undecided/third party voters than '163)

Yeah, this is a poor take. Biden is not about to run 10 points behind Clinton in Philly proper. Almost all PA district-level polls (w/ much larger samples) show Trump

On one hand, TX isn't (and was never) poised to be a "tipping point" for 270 EVs. On the other, even a modest investment in several smaller, low-turnout TX media

Just in: final FL voter reg. data. Since this March's primary, here are each party's net gains:GOP: +344,465Dem: +197,821NPA/Other: +197,818Compare to the same period in '16:GOP: +274,207Dem: +307,961NPA/Other: +220,857Trump'