With the important exception of the Monmouth national poll, the last five days of polls have been really brutal for Trump. The ABC/NYT polls in PA are potentially devastating. These Q/Civiqs polls in GA/SC are wild. Even Trafalgar has Biden ahead in PA/MI/WI.

Now it could be noise, of course. But there's been no shortage of big news. A Supreme Court vacancy and nomination. Refusal to support a peaceful transition. NYT taxes. Now the debate. Much of this news could have potentially hurt Trump, including SCOTUS

I do think the possibility that the SCOTUS fight could hurt Trump has been overlooked, FWIW. The electorate has a well established instinct toward balance, whether it's thermostatic policy views or toward divided government in midterms. I can imagine it playing out w SCOTUS rn