#Forecasting

I don't have a job right now, but I used to get paid to build models to try to forecast rare events emerging from complex systems. So, for what it's

"Yesterday designers created objects; tomorrow designers will create emergent narratives, systems, behaviors, and strategies. To that end, design organizations must create ambitious and avant-garde learning programs" — can't agree more

Why is it so rarely noted that forecasting is actually crucial to informing all kinds of policy? Traditional social science and policy research is great for understanding what happened in

Today is my 1st anniversary of when I started blogging and I am celebrating it by giving two back to back presentations. If a year ago you had told me

Garrett Mehrguth

Let’s explore how to audit your competitions top performing keywords and outrank them today! Let’s pretend we're a CRM startup, we’re going to use @SEMrush as our tool and @hubspot

NY NJ PA Weather

Update: Welp, positive. Hopefully all that hitt cardio I have been doing for years helps with this thing. Don’t know what else to say, but will keep on forecasting and

Ed’s digression here is IMO the single most overlooked/forgotten/misunderstood aspect of business/finance/investing. Forecasting and modeling are processes, not outputs. 1/nhttps://twitter.com/ed_crooks/status/1305904645785747456 In banks

Today I'm going to be live tweeting:"Predictive performance of international COVID-19mortality forecasting models"(Friedman et al. August 26, 2020)What looks like a great evaluation of covid model performance over long periods

Kevin "Master of Coin" Mekulu

1/x Interested in learning how volatility forecasting models work? Time for a thread.Consider a time series of stock returns (model input). At time t-1, we make the prediction of the

Nate came up during the Obama elections obviously, elections with pretty certain outcomes by the end. The only state he ever got wrong was Indian 2008, which wasn't THAT MUCH

I do forecasting, not epidemiology. But what do you do when all forecasting relies on epidemiology? Well, you have to get on with it.SOME OBSERVATIONS: t-cells may be relevant to

Congratulations to Prof. Stein Emil Vollset (@IHME_UW)) on “#Fertility, #mortality, #migration, & #population #scenarios for 195 countries …: a #forecasting analysis for the #GBDstudy 2019 @TheLancet doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30677-

Yesterday in Houston was one of the most impressive forecasting busts I've witnessed & been part of in a long while. A lot of you have questions. So here are

Hi I’m Chloe, I research Pan-African Heatwave Hazard Forecasting.@UniRdg_PhDI am very excited to share with you some of what I’ve been researching for almost a year. My huge thanks to

This graphic garnered quite a bit of discussion - since not everyone is overly familiar with ensembles, this thread will focus on interpreting this data and what it means for

Joseph Friedman, MPH (He/Him)

JosephRFriedman

@pyliu47 and I have recently updated the #covidcompare framework (for COVID-19 mortality forecasting model predictive validity comparisons) in a few ways.Thread:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20151233v4 1. We added a new