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#Forecasting
Dillon Richards
KOCODillon
"We are seeing tremendous evidence right now that our social distancing, all of my executive orders, are working. We are flattening the curve in Oklahoma," Gov. Kevin Stitt says."It is
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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
THREAD: In forecasting Trump's fate, one needs to be careful as there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to what the trajectory of the pandemic will look like by
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Najam Sethi
najamsethi
The King and the Donkey:1/6: Once upon a time there was a king who wanted to go fishing. He called the royal weather forecaster and asked him if it was
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alexrjl
lxrjl
Two weeks after the last thread seems like a good time to evaluate how Twitter is going and whether it's valuable.I don't think Twitter is actually helpful for making me
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Esther Anatolitis
_esther
Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg is speaking with @PatsKarvelas now on @abcnews re the Australian Government's 60-billion-dollar, 3-million-person error on JobKeeper projections – and what justifications possibly remain for excluding 1m cas
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Tomer Burg
burgwx
Between low shear, high ocean heat content (OHC) and very warm SSTs in a loop current in the Gulf of Mexico, Laura is likely to significantly intensify in the Gulf.NHC
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Rafael Fonseca MD
Rfonsi1
*** When will we know we are making progress against #COVID19? ***When we understand the dynamics of the number of deaths. But there are many limitations to the data and
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Glen O'Hara
gsoh31
Some people on here *still* insisting that Joe Biden didn't win by much. In fact, he cruised to a very clear victory. Shall we have a look at what the
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Henry Mance
henrymance
Woah, this seems far-fetched. But I have checked on the Wayback Machine and get the same result. What else could explain it?https://twitter.com/jwiechers/status/1264953956758884354 Dominic Cummings said in today's press conference that
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Tony Bannister
tony_wx
I was part of the Bureau of Meteorology's forecasting team for the 2000 Olympics. One story that didn't get out was how worried we were with our 'fine and beaut'
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Jessica Hullman
JessicaHullman
It's election forecast time! But can we take @FiveThirtyEight or @Economist forecasts at face value? What are forecasters' goals & incentives, especially post 2016 disillusionment? Excited to share a new
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Justin Wolfers
JustinWolfers
Nope, that ain’t it at all. They’re forecasting GDP to fall in Q2 at an *annualized rate* of 30%. That’s actually a quarterly decline of about 7%.Annualized rates simply aren’t
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G. Elliott Morris
gelliottmorris
Do you hear that sound? It’s the partisan non-response alarm going offhttps://twitter.com/allisonlhedges/status/1313419495373975555 There can be non-response for vote choice in the 'independent' party category too, so just looking
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Hank Dolce
hankd_wx
Before I begin this thread, I'm issuing this disclaimer. This scenario that I'm about to discuss is in the long-range and the forecast can change. Take this with a grain
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Leonardo Carella
leonardocarella
Now for some poli-sci victory laps. The 'citizen forecast', the favourite model of all quacks based on asking people "who do you think is going to win?", had Trump winning
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Adam Kucharski
AdamJKucharski
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown power of open data and analytics in research, but these activities often aren't recognised in traditional academic metrics. New perspective piece with @rozeggo & @sbfnk:
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