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#Forecasting
Kevin Rinz
kevinrinz
If you are producing or consuming unemployment rate forecasts for April, know that these have to answer both an economic question (how many people stopped working?) and a measurement question
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Chris Giles
ChrisGiles_
The article explaining the calculations is here2/https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab The methods are simple and involve no forecasting of how the Covid-19 pandemic will progress. It is just an updating model - taking
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Lafargue
Lafargue
It does, but it probably doesn't need them to make bold, contrarian, under-evidenced, extremely high risk public health policy interventions on the basis of untested modelling methods, in the middle
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Ana Delicado
anadelicado3
Things that depress me, a thread. I am a sociologist of science and I teach and research about scicomm (among other things.) I justify what I do because I believe
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Chris Giles
ChrisGiles_
NEW: The excess UK deaths linked to coronavirus are likely to be around41,000as of yesterday, not the 17,337 of the hospital deaths announcementsHere is the explanation for that estimate, which
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Adam Kucharski
AdamJKucharski
I think the below modelling output provides a useful illustration of how to evaluate forecasts. A short thread... 1/https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1303011885348990976?s=20 First, let's be clear about difference between a '
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NWS Birmingham
NWSBirmingham
Thread1/6Here is the latest on the severe weather potential for central Alabama for Sunday. We are still forecasting a likely SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK for central Alabama Sunday afternoon and evening.
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Palak Gupta
05palak
For those who don't know -Locust is an insect that belongs to the family of grasshoppers. When these locusts meet suitable environmental conditions, they become gregarious and start breeding abundantly.
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Joy-Ann 😷Reid
JoyAnnReid
Let's just be clear: Donald Trump is not going to Kenosha to calm the city or to comfort the family of Jacob Blake, or the families of Anthony Huber and
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Nick Bluhm
nick_c_bluhm
Great discussion by @medicarepayment right now. Opening comments by @Michael_Chernew: "CMS has a portfolio problem" that is holding back its evaluation and management of advanced alternative payment models. @Michael_Chernew: CMS
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Malay Gandhi
malayhgandhi
1/ Hims & Hers the latest to show how explosive the revenue growth can be in consumer healthcare. 2018: $27M2019: $83M2020E: $138MWhile improving GMs from 29% to 71%. 2/ Going
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James Ward
JamesWard73
A thread on herd immunity. In summary:- We’re not there yet- Full herd immunity will probably arrive in late June, once we’ve vaxed all 18+- From early June we’ll likely
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Carl Quintanilla
carlquintanilla
JPMorgan has a devastating piece arguing that infection rates have declined — not increased — in states where lockdowns have ended, “even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag.” (Kolonavic)(1/x)
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DMKM
2paisay
Before I take on the BR piece on hedging, let me do a Derivatives102 thread. This was Derivatives101https://twitter.com/2paisay/status/1260075432415821824?s=20 Consider interest rate swap (IRS). IRS allows you to swap one interest
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Amir Sufi
profsufi
I spent a decent amount of time doing some economic forecasting during the 2012-2015 period. I was consistently more pessimistic than median forecasts on GDP growth, and such pessimism ended
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Evan Guest
milehalfvalley
#ClimateChangeI'll be the first to agree #Emission control is great for health. Ex smog.Once you start talking a Carbon Tax will reduce temps your talking nonsense. Besides they're daily forecasting
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