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#Forecasting
Patrick McKenzie
patio11
A very interesting conversation about forecasting the future (with the Superforecaster guy), where it tends to pick up predictive alpha, the sociological makeup of people who repeatedly make good predictions,
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Gordon Brander
gordonbrander
What's going on here? The Mechanical Turk (fake) pranked inventors into making radical technological advances (real)... Which means all these things were already possible, but they didn't seem plausible.The Mechanical
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Richard Black
_richardblack
Not sure the @IEA has got this energy investment report today entirely righthttps://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2020 Well - to clarify, I'm sure the figures will be right, and the near-term projections as reliable
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Ben Chu
BenChu_
In the wake of the Bank of England’s latest forecasts the media is full of talk of an economic “boom”.One headline this morning even calls it a *supersonic* boom.What to
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Josh Marshall
joshtpm
Let me collectively subtweet the predictors and their scrum over forecasting uncertainty. I only have the ability to understand such things intuitively and not in any sense of putting formulas
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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
This is a long, interesting thread on how much more transmissible B.1.1.7 (aka "the UK variant") really is.https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1380513950832414723 One thing I'd add is that contact-tracing data from the UK found
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Carl T. Bergstrom
CT_Bergstrom
1. A somewhat more technical thread than usual.I'm trying to understand the new @UW_IHME #COVID19 forecasting model that was released this morning. Here is a web page with background, a
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George Siemens
gsiemens
The process of "systemic sensemaking" starts after every catastrophe: from Pearl Harbour to Challenger/Columbia to 9/11 to Covid-19. The system holds the knowledge but a crystallizing event solidifies its relevance.
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AQ
Evollaqi
Epidemiologists are some of the most powerful people on the planet at the moment.The attitude of "how dare you scrutinise them", or "stay in your lane don't question them" -
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Beͫvͣaͬnͨd
zorinaq
COVID deaths & hospitalizations always lag cases. The lag has been demonstrated, is often 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 than a month, and its timing can be predicted accurately (I have done it.) The
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Jay Ulfelder
JayUlfelder
"While the catastrophes in Europe and the United States were closely monitored...much of Latin America’s pain is unfolding far from global view, under governments that can’t—or won’t—offer a full tally
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Eat the Media
katearthsis
You know what you should be asking? Why haven’t the media been covering modeling? Why haven’t they asked actually people doing the work (not x professor in slightly related field)
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G. Elliott Morris
gelliottmorris
I've gotten a lot of questions about our model's projection in Arizona today (probably because of the NYT poll). People think it should be bluer. Maybe! Our model has it
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Stephen Punwasi
StephenPunwasi
Quick risk thread for #fintwit. households saw minimum payments rise 3 points higher than inflation. That extra income going to servicing debt, and not recirculated in the economy. btw,
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Rob Carlmark
rcarlmark
So I want to talk about the upcoming fire season. I've been out here in California for years forecasting and there are a few things I need to put out
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Clean Air in London
CleanAirLondon
#PollutionAlertApril2020 | HIGH 7-9/10 and VERY HIGH 10/10 particle #AirPollution from non-traffic sources expected to hit southern UK Wednesday-Saturday (as winds slow and turn easterly). Could hit #Coronavirus #COVID19 patients
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