The progress on the science front to fighting COVID continues to be at like the 95th percentile of reasonable expectations, even as the political/societal response has, uh, not been.

https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1285207186591887360 https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1285147461133176834?s=20

(Also, I'm not sure if this counts as part of "the science", but the studies on immunity have generally had pretty optimistic results if you actually follow the research instead of relying on misleading headlines, though there are a lot of uncertainties/complications.)

Basically, many things lately have reinforced a view of medium-term pessimism + long-term optimism and a lot of what I'm trying to figure out is when the medium term becomes the long term. Current prior is something like "in stages over the next 2 years"; won't be instantaneous.