If I had to guess, I'd take the under on Biden's current 9.5 (!) point lead. But I don't know. The polls show Biden doing super duper well among independents and those propel his big leads despite pretty decent numbers for Republicans on party ID. https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/1313987510888996864

And is it *that* hard to believe that a winning a debate + the president catching COVID (along with a dozen other people in the WH) while obviously not taking enough precautions would move the polls by 2-3 points? That's a pretty small move, all things considered.

The other thing I don't love about the obsession with partisan non-response bias is that if you're feeling too despondent about the election to answer a pollster's phone call, I'd also imagine you're less likely to turn out to vote.