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#Polls
Political Polls
PpollingNumbers
National General Election Polls:@ChangePolls (4/2-3)Trump 45%Biden 43%Fox News Poll (4/4-7)Trump 42%Biden 42% https://politicalpolls.jhkforecasts.com/general_election#polls
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Michael Appleton
michelappleton
Some polling observations.Labour is 22.3% ahead of National on prelim results - a margin likely to grow. How close did pollsters get to this?UMR: 21% (1.3% off)Roy Morgan: 19% (3.3%
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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
Obviously a fairly awful result for Trump in Michigan, but these other ones he can live with given that Fox News state polls have actually had pretty good numbers for
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Kurt Nice
KurtNiceHHL
Letโs talk about the polls real quick.People say they donโt trust the polls because of 2016. Do we consider that 2016 is the only year we refer to the polls
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Tim โ ForecastAverage.com
OtherSideReflec
1/ One thing I don't ask myself enough: How does Trump win?Let's leave aside ways he could cheat. They're quite possible, but too unpredictable to contemplate here.Every state where he's
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G. Elliott Morris
gelliottmorris
Mentioned this the other day, but national and state polls disagree in a big way right now about the state of the 2020 race. National surveys put the contest around
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Nate Cohn
Nate_Cohn
There are plenty of places where the polls have been 'wrong' in recent cycles.One place where they have not been wrong, in either 2016 or 2018, is Texas. Now, there's
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Julie.TrumpsGirl ๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ธ๐บ๐ธ
Concealcarrygrl
This thread is titled THE TROUBLED VOTER. Y'all.. we got this. Don't look at the polls. Don't listen to CNN. This is all last ditch B's. Go to the polls
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Fionna O'Leary, ๐ฏ๐ช๐บ
fascinatorfun
Long read | Are opinion polls biased towards Leave? | LSE BREXITInteresting reading for people interested in the stats and maths of polling and processes (or lack of them) to
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Owen Zidar
omzidar
(1/n) This is pretty speculative, but I did the following exercise to see what happens if the polls are ~5 percentage points too high for Biden (which is how much
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Michael Connors
MikeConnors
The polls are closed in Humber-Gros Morne. Here are the results of the first poll on the Elections NL web site. #nlpoli Two polls reporting: #nlpoli Four polls reporting: #nlpoli
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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
You could probably convince me that the race has tightened by half a point. On the other hand, there had been a bit of a state poll vs. national poll
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Nate Silver
NateSilver538
Biden is +6.8 in our national polling average following an NBC/WSJ poll that has him +8 among registered voters. Poll was taken before the RBG news. A +8 among registered
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John Scotus
John_Scotus
Is the race tightening? Here is the current state of play according to RCP, if the polls are to be believed and there are no ties: Biden 357-Trump 181. However,
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David Chapman
davidchapman141
THREAD:Why should we believe the polls are wrong again?1. All the polls that were right in 2016 show a different race than the polls that failed in 2016. Democracy Institute,
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Dave Wasserman
Redistrict
A few days out, the picture of this race is pretty clear:1) Biden's lead (52%-43%) larger & more stable than Clinton's in '162) Far fewer undecided/third party voters than '163)
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