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There are plenty of places where the polls have been 'wrong' in recent cycles.
One place where they have not been wrong, in either 2016 or 2018, is Texas.
One place where they have not been wrong, in either 2016 or 2018, is Texas.
Now, there's no reason to assume that the distribution of poll error and bias will be the same in 2020 as it was in 2016/2018.
But that assumption is *usually* one of the better reasons to think Trump might be in better shape than polls suggest.
But that assumption is *usually* one of the better reasons to think Trump might be in better shape than polls suggest.
With Texas, we have a state where basically every poll for the last year shows a total tossup, where there's no history of systematic polling error during the Trump era, and where it is awfully hard to believe that the polls could be right without Biden being a heavy fav
So if you're in the 'polls surely biased toward Biden bc 16/18' camp, I do think it's worth pausing at these Texas numbers and considering the extent that they complicate your theory of the case.
