There are plenty of places where the polls have been & #39;wrong& #39; in recent cycles.
One place where they have not been wrong, in either 2016 or 2018, is Texas.

Now, there& #39;s no reason to assume that the distribution of poll error and bias will be the same in 2020 as it was in 2016/2018.
But that assumption is *usually* one of the better reasons to think Trump might be in better shape than polls suggest.

With Texas, we have a state where basically every poll for the last year shows a total tossup, where there& #39;s no history of systematic polling error during the Trump era, and where it is awfully hard to believe that the polls could be right without Biden being a heavy fav

So if you& #39;re in the & #39;polls surely biased toward Biden bc 16/18& #39; camp, I do think it& #39;s worth pausing at these Texas numbers and considering the extent that they complicate your theory of the case.