G. Elliott Morris, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @gelliottmorris

G. Elliott Morris

gelliottmorris

Trump is #actually pretty bad at politics. That's why his (net) approval rating has been historically stable and almost perennially low, and why he will very likely become the country's

Do you hear that sound? It’s the partisan non-response alarm going offhttps://twitter.com/allisonlhedges/status/1313419495373975555 There can be non-response for vote choice in the 'independent' party category too, so just looking

I've gotten a lot of questions about our model's projection in Arizona today (probably because of the NYT poll). People think it should be bluer. Maybe! Our model has it

I see we're talking about how people interpret election forecasts and whether they influence turnout again today, so let me just offer a few thoughts. All of this being primarily

10% chance of a trifecta? color me skeptical, very skeptical The one huge thing I learned from modeling this year is that it is a mistake to model uncertainty as

I am going to use Twitter as a diary of sorts to explain what happened with our presidential election forecast (and why) on most days between now and November 3rd.

Trump can afford to lose 36 electoral votes from his 2016 total and still hold on to the White House. But Biden currently leads in polls of all 6 of

Some more numbers on the Senate's rural bias:If all Senate seats were up at the same time and we assume D pres states go D down-ballot, Dems would have to

SCOTUS control is determined by: (A) A president where Rs can lose the pop vote by six points & still win the electoral collegeAnd(B) A Senate under nearly permanent GOP

My avg of live phone polls over the past month has Biden performing about ~10pts better (on margin) among non-college whites than Clinton did. Online data (YouGov & UCLA Nationscape)

I will offer an olive branch. There is a lot of value in incorporating context and prior judgment or "subjectivity" in statistical models (that's why being Bayesian is so great!).

IMO this is pretty fundamentally irreconcilable538, Aug 26 2016: Clinton +4, 18% other/undecided, 81% to win538, Aug 26 2020: Biden +9, 7% other/undecided, 70% to win Here are the numbers