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1/ One thing I don't ask myself enough: How does Trump win?
Let's leave aside ways he could cheat. They're quite possible, but too unpredictable to contemplate here.
Every state where he's winning in the polls—TX, AK, etc.—gets him 163 EVs. Precious little, but a start.
Let's leave aside ways he could cheat. They're quite possible, but too unpredictable to contemplate here.
Every state where he's winning in the polls—TX, AK, etc.—gets him 163 EVs. Precious little, but a start.
2/ Let's say things regress to the mean a bit. Biden does horribly in the other two debates, or gets hit with a scandal, and state polls all shift 3 points toward Trump.
If polls are accurate, he gets IA, OH, GA, NC. Still only at 219 EVs.
Hmm. Now let's look at polling error.
If polls are accurate, he gets IA, OH, GA, NC. Still only at 219 EVs.
Hmm. Now let's look at polling error.
3/ If polls shift 3 pts to Trump between now & E-Day, he needs a uniform polling error of ~3.8 points to pick up FL, AZ, NV and either WI or PA and pass 270.
But IRL, poll error isn't uniform. What's plausible?
He's only a tiny error away from AZ and FL. That gets him to 259.
But IRL, poll error isn't uniform. What's plausible?
He's only a tiny error away from AZ and FL. That gets him to 259.
4/ Now we pick 1-2 states where polling error is larger, like WI's 6.7pt error in 2016.
If polls move 3pts his way, MN/VA/CO are likely still out of reach. But 4-5pt errors in NV/WI or MI or PA get him past 270.
And that's how Trump wins via poll shift & poll error alone.
If polls move 3pts his way, MN/VA/CO are likely still out of reach. But 4-5pt errors in NV/WI or MI or PA get him past 270.
And that's how Trump wins via poll shift & poll error alone.
Notice, this is not an easy path. It assumes that multiple factors go Trump's way in the next few weeks.
But although it's unlikely, Trump *can* win even without any cheating whatsoever.
/fin
But although it's unlikely, Trump *can* win even without any cheating whatsoever.
/fin
