This is a good thread. It's not *completely* binary whether we wind up with a "best-case scenario" (deaths in the high 5 figures/low 6 figures) or a worst-case scenario (an order of magnitude more). But it's more bimodal than you might think.
With that said, one thing to track over next ~10-14 days is whether NYC is not merely flattening the curve (it clearly *has* flattened) but bending it downward. The curve staying flat for a long time (R ~=1) is how you could wind up in purgatory.
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