Oliver Johnson, Discover and Read the Best of Twitter Threads by @BristOliver

Oliver Johnson

BristOliver

Still trying to calibrate how worried to be about B1.617.2 and genuinely don't know. These kinds of graphs https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1391668827239370754https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1390675976472993792definitely

On Indian variants, it's worth remembering that (whatever the cool kids say) just because someone has over-reacted in the past, that doesn't mean they are over-reacting now. Personally, I'm more

Is it just me, or are the English vaccination numbers a bit meh lately? This is total doses. We had a couple of good weeks in late March, and a

By my reckoning there are 38 local authorities in England and Wales alone that are below 10 cases per 100k per week, so even Independent SAGE think schools there should

I totally understand the worry, but I'm not currently convinced the Indian variant will continue to grow in the UK like B117 did, the way the RH graph implies it

Corona centrist here. Yes, REACT is bad, and confirms we are now at a very substantial fraction of Wave 1. But please don't quote these regional R numbers without confidence

I've been thinking some more about Keir Starmer's demand to shut down the South West for 2-3 weeks, and Fake SAGE wanting to shut the entire hospitality sector and ban

New REACT paper is out https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1_12345_Interim-(1).pdf and is being sold as "rate of growth is slowing", and I think this is wrong and dangerous.

Is it too early in the morning for some back of the envelope calculations about why things are much better than in March, and we don't need to slam on

Corona deaths in France:- week to 3rd September: 130- week to 16th March (date of lockdown): 123But I think both headbanging "It's Only Cases Twitter" and bedwetting "Stay Locked Down

I think I've spent too long attacking other people's wrong numbers lately and I'm not sure that's helping. So here's a fairly brief non-technical thread to tell people who aren't

This Sunday Times graph of *modelled* infections surprises me https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/three-weeks-of-dither-and-delay-on-coronavirus-that-cost-thousands-of-british-lives-05sjvwv7g I'd have assumed that such a narrow spike in