Read on Twitter
Corona deaths in France:
- week to 3rd September: 130
- week to 16th March (date of lockdown): 123
But I think both headbanging "It& #39;s Only Cases Twitter" and bedwetting "Stay Locked Down Forever Twitter" are both wrong, and you can see why if you look at the numbers correctly.
- week to 3rd September: 130
- week to 16th March (date of lockdown): 123
But I think both headbanging "It& #39;s Only Cases Twitter" and bedwetting "Stay Locked Down Forever Twitter" are both wrong, and you can see why if you look at the numbers correctly.
You& #39;ve probably seen these graphs: cases are way up, even higher than the first wave, and yet deaths are hardly up at all. (All graphs pinched from Our World In Data, because why wouldn& #39;t you) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&year=latest&time=2019-12-31..2020-09-05&country=~FRA®ion=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc">https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...
So, the more excitable Toby Young stans use the word casedemic a lot, and retweet things about viral load or false positives to justify their belief that the virus has gone away or is much less dangerous now. I& #39;m not convinced.
Part of the point is that cases are not infections. We have a lot more tests now, and so the first peak may have been 20-50 times higher than it looks. But there& #39;s a more important point about cases, which you can see if you plot them correctly.
The point is, and I can& #39;t believe I have to say this after 6 months, but PLOT YOUR NUMBERS ON A LOG SCALE. What really matters isn& #39;t the height of the peaks, but how fast they went up, and you can& #39;t see that on linear axes.
Whereas on a log scale all becomes clear: cases *are* going up, but nothing like as fast as they did first time round. By eye, I reckon they were doubling every 3.5 days in March and are doubling every 15 days now.
It& #39;s a big difference from a public health point of view: if you lock down, nothing much changes for 3 weeks or so so further doubling is baked in: the current situation is a bit of a car crash, but it& #39;s more of a slow motion one than before.
Ah, but what about deaths? Deaths haven& #39;t gone up, have they? Actually, yes they have. It took a while after cases started going up, as younger people got infected first, but again, using a log plot you can see deaths are up lately.
Doesn& #39;t looks much, but it isn& #39;t helped by the fact that whoever put out the French data yesterday had 2 bottles of Puligny-Montrachet for lunch, and managed to add 19 to 30706 and get 30686 (so ignore the dip in the last two day& #39;s figures).
So, overall I think France has serious problems: their test positivity rate keeps going up too, and it& #39;s not obvious how they put the brakes on. Of course, the interesting question is how much of this is our future? /FIN
None of yesterday& #39;s numbers look good either. (Only 12 deaths, but was 6 last Saturday). Compare positivity and number of clusters with 10 days ago https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1298695694463705088/">https://twitter.com/BristOliv... for example. I& #39;d say France are boiling a frog, but they& #39;d probably take it as a recipe suggestion.
