On Indian variants, it's worth remembering that (whatever the cool kids say) just because someone has over-reacted in the past, that doesn't mean they are over-reacting now. Personally, I'm more worried than I was (but not panicking).

This seems like a good and measured article on where we stand, and I don't see what we lose by making B.1.617.x a Variant of Concern and surge testing for it, given how much testing capacity we have. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57016110

These seem like key sentences: note the comparison is currently phrased in terms of "grows as at least as fast as B117", not "outgrows B117 by as much as B117 outgrew wildtype", though this seems like a crucial distinction to look out for and I could be misreading what is meant.

I've explained in the past why the latter is harder https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1384745882030071808 though I said then that it is possible, and these graphs https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1390418660200796161 from @TWenseleers are a concern in that regard. (Though remember even 10% of London cases is 25/day, so big error bars)

On the vaccine thing, that's out of my league but you are all following @andrew_croxford and @DevanSinha already, right? https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1390401717754335235 https://twitter.com/DevanSinha/status/1390388896433942544

In terms of what else we can do, essentially the more jabs the better (but that was already true, right?), particularly in ethnic minority and impoverished communities where current take-up is relatively low, and where work and housing circumstances make the risk of spread higher

But I think it's worth saying that even if an Indian variant becomes dominant in the UK, it doesn't automatically mean an Indian outcome. Unless this variant has worse health effects than B117 then it all has to be judged in the context of current low (and still falling) numbers.

Definitely in favour of keeping numbers as low as they are (or lower), and of getting as many injections in as many arms as possible. But "concern" seems an appropriate level of reaction right now, though of course you'd expect me to take the dull centrist line.

Right, you can all start shouting at me now.