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Still trying to calibrate how worried to be about B1.617.2 and genuinely don't know. These kinds of graphs https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1391668827239370754
https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1390675976472993792
definitely feel like they are worth taking seriously, in terms of new variants apparently being on a course to dominance.
https://twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1390675976472993792
definitely feel like they are worth taking seriously, in terms of new variants apparently being on a course to dominance.
But I still feel like there's a big step from "becoming dominant" to "causing trouble". Feels to me there could be various things going on, including (in increasing order of worry)
1. effects of non-random sampling (e.g. T+T in clusters)
2. higher R in general
3. vaccine escape
1. effects of non-random sampling (e.g. T+T in clusters)
2. higher R in general
3. vaccine escape
On the last, yes I've seen reassuring threads from people in white coats, you don't need to share them with me. But was just wondering if we could see worrying signals in dashboard data, and was wondering what to watch out for.
For example, here's cases in Bolton by age. It feels to me like the increase is currently in younger less vulnerable age groups. But this might be a good graph to keep an eye on if you visit the dashboard.
Of course, I've made tasteless analogies on this subject in the past, but we've pumped a lot of chlorine in one end of the pool since then, and so reasonable to hope that has some effect? https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1302949052112306177
Another good place to check would be London, since the variant is apparently most dominant there, but the past high peak means that the ongoing lack of a log-scale option on the dashboard basically stops us doing that directly. Sigh.
But raw data of averages under 60/over 60:
1st Feb 267 vs 251
1st March 52 vs 36.6
1st April 31.6 vs 14.1
5th May 19.7 vs 7
So ratio is falling, and the latest figure in the over 60s is 7 cases/100k/week. That's low by any standards.
1st Feb 267 vs 251
1st March 52 vs 36.6
1st April 31.6 vs 14.1
5th May 19.7 vs 7
So ratio is falling, and the latest figure in the over 60s is 7 cases/100k/week. That's low by any standards.
So at the moment at least, I'm not seeing signals in public data that lead me to panic, and I'm happy to leave it to the professionals who do have access to all the good data to tell me how worried to be.
