New REACT paper is out https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1_12345_Interim-(1).pdf and is being sold as "rate of growth is slowing", and I think this is wrong and dangerous. See for example report from @JamesTGallagher here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54366478 (who is only reporting the study, so not blaming him).

This is the study that said before "R=1.7" and everyone panicked. They are now saying "R=1.1". I suspect they were both wrong, and it was actually more like R=1.4 each time. This is something @jamesannan has been pointing out for a while.

The R=1.7 and R=1.1 are the slopes within the little regions on graph B. But you can see how noisy the data is, and the lines don't join up in a sensible way. Whereas graph A gives a more coherent picture across time periods and has no slowing down at all. So I'm Team Graph A.

Looks like they had about 40 positives out of 9000 tests on each of the last 9 days. But with that sample size, you can pretend it's a Poisson(40). So daily counts would be of the order of 40 +/- 13. The first two days were on the high side, hence low R estimate.