Is it just me, or are the English vaccination numbers a bit meh lately? This is total doses. We had a couple of good weeks in late March, and a supply dip afterwards, but broadly speaking we're not doing many more than we did in January, which seems more than a bit cheems.

After a long period of Europe-leading numbers, we've been caught and passed: maybe it's just a hiccup, but the UK is currently doing fewer daily doses than Italy.

Don't get me wrong, we've done brilliantly so far, but this is no time for resting on laurels.

If I understand this thread from @PaulMainwood (who is a definite must-follow BTW) correctly we've been building a stockpile lately https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1389935512111173636 which just seems wrong.

One reason I find it frustrating is because of the multiplier effect I talked about here https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1378626064805728257 We've done enough injections already that e.g. 5% more people protected could have a huge effect on R, because it's a big proportion of the remaining susceptibles.

For example, if you think we are at 65% protected, then 5% more people protected takes out one in seven of the remaining susceptibles, and turns what would be R of 1.16 into under 1.

It's also worth looking at SAGE estimates of the effect of NPIs. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf Closing pubs, cafes and restaurants was modelled to reduce R by 0.1 to 0.2.

(That was in September, with maybe 10% protected, so reasonable to assume that reopening them on May 17th has less effect by the way. If there's fewer than half the susceptibles now, I don't see why we wouldn't be looking at an increase in R of 0.05-0.1 or so)

But fundamentally, it seems plausible to me that we have enough vaccines to completely de-risk opening hospitality .. but that doesn't work if they are in fridges, not in arms. So, time to get on it, I think.