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James Ward

JamesWard73

To save you the effort of reading the new SPI-M modelling papers released yesterday, I’ve gone through and taken some notes. Compared to last month (below), there’s now a lot

HI thread Mark II: after I tweeted last week about Herd Immunity (HI), quite a lot of people got in touch to point out that my model was either over-estimating

very much agree with @BristOliver on this. just one point to add: if B.1.617 turns out to have a transmission advantage over B.1.117 (so R0 up by 50% say, to

A thread on herd immunity. In summary:- We’re not there yet- Full herd immunity will probably arrive in late June, once we’ve vaxed all 18+- From early June we’ll likely

I found some time over the weekend for a quick model update, with all the latest data on vaccine supply, take-up and effectiveness. The net result: no change to my

Here’s a great example of how sometimes modelling produces counter-intuitive results: if (under certain conditions) you randomly infect 100,000 people with covid in the next few weeks, you’d save 250

from what we've seen so far, it seems unlikely to me that Israel would have a significant, national exit wave when it fully unlocks - but I could be wrong.

I’ve been getting increasingly confident in recent weeks that we’re on the right path to defeating B.1.1.7 in the UK, and stand a good chance of ‘unlocking’ in May/June with