Do you hear that sound? It’s the partisan non-response alarm going off https://twitter.com/allisonlhedges/status/1313419495373975555

There can be non-response for vote choice in the 'independent' party category too, so just looking at the sample d/r numbers isn't quite the whole picture.

The +16 is probably a mix of both non-response and normal sampling deviation https://twitter.com/stevesingiser/status/1313468349918011393?s=20

If Biden is up by 8-9 like our model says then we would expect to see +16 polls in about one of every 30 samples, so this isn't like earth shatteringly weird

It's worth reminding y'all that our model (unlike others) adjusts for partisan non-response, so huge swings like this among polls that don't weight by party/past vote get discounted unless matched by polls that do have more stable political compositions https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president