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#Estimate
๐ฎ๐ถโคTerri Aguilarโค๐ฎ๐ถ
TerrinaMajnoona
Yeah its pretty much all made-up.https://twitter.com/dylan_thyme/status/1388507693292347393?s=19 First of all there are only about 10.1 million Americans currently receiving unemployment benefits. There are approximately 63 million American
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John Macke
JohnPMacke
A short story about why I love @waybackmachine.I'll start with two pictures. Spot the difference.The first is the current correction on Richard Epstein's Covid-19 piece. The second is a Wayback
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George Yarrow
george_yarrow
1. So here's a discussion. False +ves and -ves are always with us. The higher they are the less informative a test will be about a specific case. When high,
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Flare Community
CommunityFlare
I hear this question all the time:"๐๐๐๐ฃ ๐ฌ๐๐ก๐ก ๐ฉ๐๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ฌ๐ค๐ง๐ ๐ก๐๐ช๐ฃ๐๐?"The truth is, no one knows the specific date. What we do have is an esti
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Ben Gardiner
BendyGardiner
So lots of important people seem to have some confusion around how deadly Covid-19 is - I went through the data we have to work it and it's clearly very
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Steve Brown
stevebrown2856
Cases update for England (now that I have un-broken my spreadsheet). Cases by specimen date up a bit, point R(t) estimate at 1.05, will go up a bit again over
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Fabrizio Venditti
F_Vend
1/NDo you like Local Projections together with IV to study dynamic responses to structural shocks? Then you need to go through this paper. There is an interesting estimator that you
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Murad Banaji
muradbanaji
I've put down some estimates of COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) in Mumbai during 2020. To estimate IFR you need: (1) the number of deaths (the numerator) and (2) the
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Kevin Simler
KevinSimler
Back in late Jan/early Feb, when I was taking the outbreak seriously enough to buy canned goods, I registered a probability estimate with a friend.I said there was a 10%
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Stealthy Wealth
stealthy_wealth
If you get a return of 9%, and inflation is 5%, what is your real return?You might think it's (return - inflation)=> 9% - 5% = 4%Well, that's actually just
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Ben Shapiro
benshapiro
If Cuomo's preliminary antibody estimates for NYC are correct, actual infection fatality rate in the city is 0.8 percent. Good news: that's far lower than the WHO 3-4 percent estimate.
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Atif Mian
AtifRMian
Big-data driven economic analysis has made remarkable progress over the last 10/12 yearsThis has huge potential IF policy makers were to harness its power effectivelyI was in the middle of
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Nick Carmody JD, MS Psych
Nick_Carmody
U.S. has 4% of the world's population, but 22% of Covid deaths. If U.S. accounted for the same share of deaths as population, it'd have 38K deaths. Incoincidentally, that falls
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Sam Marsh
Sam_Marsh101
BREAKING! In the first of a series of technical notes by @FirstActuarial for @UCU, @Derek_Benstead and @RedActuary use @USSPensions figures to calculate that an unbiased estimate of the fund shows
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Graeme Burk
graemeburk
Every day for the past two weeks, Amazon has been sending me an alert that the delivery estimate of the Doctor Who season 24 blu-ray has changed. When they started
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Becca Costello ๐ณ๏ธโ๐
becca_costello
You've probably heard the stat โ I've definitely said it a few dozen times โ that Cincinnati needs an estimated 28,000 more affordable housing units. You may have also heard
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