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U.S. has 4% of the world's population, but 22% of Covid deaths. If U.S. accounted for the same share of deaths as population, it'd have 38K deaths. Incoincidentally, that falls directly in the statistical range of deaths that Trump used in his infamous "Hoax" rally on Feb. 28. 1/
Let's review a thread from April 9th: 2/ https://twitter.com/Nick_Carmody/status/1248245322238722048
On April 9th, Trump was taking victory laps b/c the current model was showing 64K deaths...
...which came in under the revised model of 100-240K deaths...
...which was an expanded revision from the 35-40K death estimate that Trump was briefed on prior to the Feb. 28th rally. 6/
...which came in under the revised model of 100-240K deaths...
...which was an expanded revision from the 35-40K death estimate that Trump was briefed on prior to the Feb. 28th rally. 6/
To review:
- The initial estimate of Covid deaths appears to have been 35-40K
- The estimate was revised to 100-240K deaths to account for Trump's dereliction of duty
- Total number of deaths is now 183K, which if adjusted for population % is 38K deaths (original estimate)
7/
- The initial estimate of Covid deaths appears to have been 35-40K
- The estimate was revised to 100-240K deaths to account for Trump's dereliction of duty
- Total number of deaths is now 183K, which if adjusted for population % is 38K deaths (original estimate)
7/
- The current estimate for U.S. covid deaths by Dec. 1st is 317K. This means that the projected number of Covid deaths will exceed even the upper range of the models that took into account Trump's dereliction of duty by almost 80K (317K-240K= 77K). 8/ https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
This means that Trump's incompetence/sociopathic indifference ("It is what it is") falls outside the range of the expected/forecasted dereliction of duty.
The takeaway: Even when judging Trump by his own standards, his failure fell far short of the expected ranges of failure. 9/
The takeaway: Even when judging Trump by his own standards, his failure fell far short of the expected ranges of failure. 9/
Relevant threads: 10/ https://twitter.com/Nick_Carmody/status/1261268748750606337
A link of of every thread I've written since Covid began starting on February 29th.....14/.... https://twitter.com/Nick_Carmody/status/1290731626410827777
