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#Estimate
Melissa Tate #StopTheSteal
TheRightMelissa
The Chris Murray model that was used to estimate the impact of Covid & ultimately the decision to shutdown our economy has turned out to be highly inaccurate: Overestimation of:-Hospilizations
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Matt Strand (Jake, at Fort Polk)
mattstrand27
1) @JamesGField a few thoughts from LTP: 1) BNs get a free rep of MDMP while the BCT starts MDMP. I asked my coach a month ago if I I
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Adam Kucharski
AdamJKucharski
Is the reproduction number currently 0.7, or 0.85, or 0.641? Was it bigger yesterday than today? A thread on real-time estimation and false precision... 1/ Most real-time estimation of R
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Hugh Lewis
ProfHughLewis
It is possible to estimate re-entry risk even if no detailed spacecraft/rocket stage breakup analysis is available. E.g., one may assume that any surviving fragments are dispersed in a rectangular
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Chandan Sapkota
csapkota
Quick thoughts on #Nepal's FY2021 budget. https://bit.ly/FY2021nep Given the uncertainty and circumstances, the finance minister has done a decent job. It tries to strike a balance between responding to the
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Venkatesh Rao
vgr
There's a very simple litmus test for whether an idea is right or left of center. If someone is trying to convince you that you have more agency than you
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Danny Boy
Care2much18
I keep seeing a very lazy argument that Ireland failed healthcare workers, due to high infection rates, yet nobody ever mentions how few deaths.Cases of Healthcare Workers: 7,819Deaths of Healthcare
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A Marm Kilpatrick
DiseaseEcology
What is "fatality" of COVID19? Still lots of confusion out there about case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR). One is what you want to know but almost
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Anna "Legacy Archaeologist" Filina
afilina
Estimates just don't work. They never have. It is a lie that we tell for fake comfort. It's not our fault. The world has conditioned us to believe that estimates
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Kai Kupferschmidt
kakape
This new paper on #sarscov2 transmission delves into the data from Hunan province and it is really interesting and the kind of data I would love to see more of.
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Jacob Steinhardt
JacobSteinhardt
Good to see this analysis, but misleading headline. 24 states have *point estimates* over 1, but uncertainty in estimates is large. Let's consider null hypothesis that Rt=0.95 everywhere. Then would
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Carl T. Bergstrom
CT_Bergstrom
Unfortunately the misleading claims of those two doctors in Bakersfield keep making the rounds, so I want to very briefly address the problem with what they are saying. I won't
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Dr Kevin Purcell
kevinpurcell
Hong Kong University has a “real-time” with a plot of R effective measured every day!That’s impressive.Plotted on the same time axis as the case plots below so you can match
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Jon Becker
jonbecker_
Well that’s earlier than I thoughthttps://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1252957045780865027 I assume that estimate is for “widely available” not just “done and ready for testing” right? Because if it’s the latter that’s brutal
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Carl T. Bergstrom
CT_Bergstrom
This is extremely important to keep in mind with respect to that story about how we shouldn't have shut down the country that many, many people may are already be
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Richard Neher
richardneher
The preprint on #SARSCoV2 seroprevalence in Santa Clara County continues to make headlines. They estimate 2-4% of the population had #COVID19 by April 4 implying an infection fatality rate (IFR)
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